But as more details emerge, it’s becoming clearer that the eligibility criteria will hinge almost entirely on income. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed in a Fox News interview that the payments will likely target families making “less than, say, $100,000.” That comment immediately triggered questions—does that threshold apply to individuals or households? And what about married couples who file jointly?

One of the more thorough breakdowns came from Blind to Billionaire, a YouTuber known for covering Social Security, stimulus legislation, and federal benefits. His analysis cut through the speculation and hit the one point he says matters most: income. He argued that despite all the political noise, the government’s decision will boil down to a simple yes-or-no test.

“If you make under $75,000 a year as an individual, you’re likely eligible,” he said. “That’s the core of it. Forget everything else.”

He emphasized that this threshold—while not yet confirmed—is consistent with previous stimulus-style programs. And based on those patterns, the expected limit for married couples filing jointly would be around $150,000.

Blind to Billionaire also addressed common fears from viewers. Would being unemployed disqualify them? Would Social Security recipients be overlooked? What if someone didn’t file a tax return last year? He pointed out that previous federal payments were designed to include these groups, and there’s nothing so far that suggests this plan will be different. If the final guidelines mirror earlier relief efforts, income caps—not employment status—will determine eligibility.

Trump himself said the payments could go out “in the middle of next year,” a timeline that several commentators believe is optimistic at best. Even if the government settles on eligibility criteria soon, the logistics of building an entirely new distribution system for hundreds of millions of people could be far more complicated than the administration is suggesting.

For married couples, the biggest obstacle won’t be paperwork or past tax filings—it will be combined income. If one spouse earns $80,000 and the other earns $72,000, they’d likely fall outside the projected threshold, even if neither makes what would traditionally be considered a high income. Couples hovering near that $150,000 mark may need to think ahead about how their 2024 tax return will look, especially if bonuses or investment gains nudge them slightly over.

But the biggest red flag raised by experts has nothing to do with who qualifies and everything to do with how the payments would be funded. The math simply doesn’t add up.

The plan promises at least $2,000 checks to roughly 150 million adults earning under $100,000. That would require somewhere around $300 billion in revenue. Erica York, an economist with the Tax Foundation, pointed out that new tariffs have only raised about $120 billion so far—nowhere near the amount needed to cover the promised payments. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the government collected $195 billion in customs duties in the last fiscal year—not small, but still far from what would be required to turn tariff dollars into thousands of dollars for each eligible citizen.