Democratic and Republican primaries take shape
On the Democratic side, Harris currently leads early primary polling with 32 percent support, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 23.8 percent.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails in third at just under 10 percent, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
The host notes that Harris’s resurgence may surprise some, given that “many people did write Kamala Harris off following her 2024 election defeat.”
But recent polling shows her regaining the lead. Betting markets also reflect momentum, with a 56 percent chance she will run for the Democratic nomination in 2028, up from just 11.2 percent a few months ago.
“Today, it is more likely than not that she is going to run again,” the video states.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance dominates early polling, capturing 49.2 percent support, far ahead of Donald Trump Jr., who trails by 29 points. Senator Marco Rubio posts 12.5 percent, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9.2 percent.
According to the simulation, Vance is the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, holding a 46 percent chance of becoming the party’s standard-bearer. Rubio follows at 18 percent.
As the host summarizes:
“If nothing big changes, he will very likely become the party’s nominee in the next presidential race.”
Solid and likely states give Vance an early edge
Grok’s simulation begins by assigning “solid” states, defined as those decided by 15 points or more. Vance’s solid column includes Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
Ohio’s inclusion marks a major shift. Once a key battleground, the state has trended sharply right.
The host notes:
“It is not difficult to see that he will carry the Buckeye State by a solid 15-point margin,” particularly following Donald Trump’s double-digit win there in 2024.
Harris’s solid states mirror much of her 2024 coalition, with some modest gains.
She is projected to win Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s first district by at least 15 points. Notably, the model predicts Connecticut and Delaware returning to solid Democratic margins after narrower results in 2024.
After accounting for solid states, Vance leads 139 to 108 in electoral votes. The “likely” category, with margins between 5 and 15 points, further boosts his advantage.
He is projected to win Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s second district. Florida and Texas are considered firmly red after recent Republican gains, and Arizona — narrowly carried by Trump in 2024 — is expected to remain Republican. With solid and likely states tallied, Vance reaches 246 electoral votes, just 24 short of the 270 needed to win.
Harris’s likely states include Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, New York, Maine statewide, Rhode Island, and Virginia. Illinois and New York are flagged as warning signs for Democrats after narrower margins in 2024: she carried Illinois by under 11 points and New York by 12 percent, both weaker than prior Democratic performances.
The upper Midwest and Sun Belt
The “lean” category, representing margins of 1–5 points, highlights shifting battlegrounds. Nevada and Georgia fall into the lean Republican column.
Nevada, which had not voted Republican since 2004, flipped in 2024, and Grok predicts Vance will hold it. Georgia, historically competitive, is also projected to remain narrowly red.
In the Upper Midwest, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are projected to move together once again. These three states have historically voted as a bloc, backing the same candidate in every election since 1992. After Trump reclaimed all three in 2024, Grok forecasts Vance carrying them each by a lean margin.
On the Democratic side, New Jersey and Nebraska’s second district are classified as lean blue. Harris is projected to win New Jersey by just under five points, a sharp drop from Joe Biden’s 16-point margin in 2020.
At this stage, Vance holds 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 212, according to the AI simulation.
The video showing Grok AI’s 2028 election simulation has sparked strong reactions online. Many viewers expressed disbelief at the idea of a Vance vs. Harris matchup:
“I don’t believe the Democrats could be stupid enough to run Kamala again.”
”There is no way Kamala wins a primary.”
”Can you imagine the debates between J.D and Kamala? Lmao!!!”
Others focused on broader electoral implications:
”If voter ID is enforced nationwide, there’s no way a Democrat wins the Whitehouse and we could even see House and Senate seats go to more Republicans.”
”Gosh, I’d crack up laughing so much if Minnesota flips red this year, definitely in 2028. How funny.”
What do you make of this simulation and its prediction? Could the 2028 race really come down to JD Vance versus Kamala Harris, or will Donald Trump find a way back into the mix? We’d love to hear your thoughts — share them below!